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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler ܫof Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by 💯the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coin🃏cidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegatio꧟n team.
Stܫunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thuꦜs, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in♏ a match. To be precise, the number of goꦰals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
R💧ather ඣnot. 46 % of all wins are based upon a one-goal-margin.
No. Only abo🀅ut 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 🦹75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/20🙈11.
Extraordin🌞ary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of prediction🐭s. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The ⛎expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalsc🧸oring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly bet💞ter conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the sea𒈔son is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of ♍the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-ജspecific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average o🤪pponent)
The coincideꩲnce averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performanc♛es of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of o𝔉♔ffense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the per🦂formance level.
ꦐThe goal difference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (m✱atch day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performa🎀nce levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer ᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚᩚ𒀱ᩚᩚᩚbreak and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “sওtreak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opp𒊎ortunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performan♊ce of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect ꧅prediction of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the bes♈t team wins and becomes Germ🌞an champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s 🤡se⭕arch for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know!𒐪 But it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.